Monday, July 12, 2010

Baseball at the Break: 10 Storylines that will cause intrigue through October

Ah, the Midsummer Classic.

Coming on the heels of the fourth of July, it almost has that holiday-like feel. With games going on everyday from April through September, it almost seems like the sports world stops for those few special days. Many of my fondest memories of childhood center around being at the shore at my grandparents' house, glued to the T.V. for the Home Run Derby and subsequent All-Star Game. It's America's pastime on a grander scale, second only to the World Series.

With that being said, the Fall Classic is just months away, things are just starting to heat up in the race for the playoffs. Teams are looking to make leads bigger, play catch up, or just make things respectable. Players will be attempting to pad their statistics, fight for survival, and ultimately, secure their futures. Things are just getting interesting as we roll through July. Here is a list of the top 10 things to think about as the season draws nearer and nearer to its end:

10. Will Strasburg continue his torrid pace?
Stephen Strasburg is nothing short of a phenomenon. News flash, right? Strasburg has lived up to the hype in every way imaginable, except for one: wins. Yes, the statistic known as "wins" is an overrated statistic due to the offense being a part of it, and it has shown in the case of Strasburg. The kid has only given up more than two runs once in seven starts, and yet stands at 3-2. 3-2? Really? Strasburg should theoretically have five or six wins. The flamethrower from San Diego State is actually starting to fly under the radar because of his mediocre record. He, however, has been anything but. Strasburg has 61 strikeouts in seven starts, a 2.32 ERA, and shows no signs of slowing down. He will continue to dominate because he is that good, but until the Nationals decide they want to give him run support and help him to a few more W's, this prodigy will continue to lose the media attention he deserves. In short, it's a bit of a shame.

9. Will this be Lou's final season?
There has been speculation since last season that this could indeed be Lou's final season as manager not only for the Chicago Cubs, but for any team. Piniella has even gone on record as saying that his job as Cubs' skipper will be his last stop, regardless of when that tenure ends. With his contract expiring at the end of this season, and the team seemingly in a season-long tailspin, my guess would be that "Sweet Lou" will get out before it's too late. His best shot at the ultimate glory of winning a World Series as Cubs manager was 2008, and when the baseball gods did not allow that to happen, it appears that it will not happen under his administration. If Lou decides to sign a new contract following this season, it would be a surprise to anyone and everyone. The Cubs will be venturing in a new direction, becoming sellers as the season hits the trade deadline in mere weeks. That new direction may include a new manager such as Ryne Sandberg with a younger, cheaper team. Lou may not be in the future plans, and if he is, I, along with everyone else, will be surprised and a bit puzzled.

8. Can San Diego hold up in the NL West?
One of the Cinderella stories of the 2010 baseball season has been the surprising success of the San Diego Padres. Being stuck at the bottom of the NL West for the past few seasons, the Padres have been downright awful since their 2007 one-game playoff loss to the Colorado Rockies. With many predicting another fifth place finish for San Diego, it is nothing short of shocking that the team is just one game behind the best record in the National League. A makeshift pitching and timely hitting have made this a quality season so far in southern California. However, this seems more like an illusion rather than a reality. With three very good teams nipping at their heels, the odds are certainly not in the future of the young upstarts. I think the Padres will still end the season on a high note, exceeding expectations of everyone, but once it is all said and done, give the edge to the Dodgers, as they are the most talented team in that division. They'll be the winners come season's end. Nevertheless, you stay classy, San Diego.

7. Can Ubaldo Jimenez reach unimaginable heights?
The real question here should be "Is the 2010 version of Ubaldo Jimenez human?" Nevertheless, his 15 wins at midseason is the most by any pitcher since David Wells accomplished that feat in 2000. Ubaldo is on quite the roll, ranking in the top five in wins (15), ERA (2.20), innings pitched (127.0), WHIP (1.05), and complete games (3). He is having a career year, and his best year to boot. Expect much of the same in the second half from this 26-year-old phenom, but also expect a bit of a drop off. At this pace, Jimenez would have in upward of 28-30 wins, and that is just not plausible. However, expect his win total to increase due to the Rockies surge in the past few weeks. If they continue to flourish, a win total of 23 or 24 would not be out of the question. That seems like a reasonable figure to contend with when the leaves start falling, but also expect his ERA and WHIP to increase a bit. Maintaining those type of statistics is going to be very difficult for the Rockies' ace, so don't count on it. Regardless of all the predictions, one thing is for sure: this kid's got one bright future.

6. Could the Phillies really miss the playoffs?
Third place is not where anyone in Philadelphia envisioned their hometown club at the All-Star break. Quite frankly, neither did I. Nevertheless, that is where the Phils stand as of July 13, and if they want to erase the 4.5 game deficit in the division, they need to start producing some runs. This has been the main problem for the Phils for the past month or so, but it does have an easy answer. Jimmy Rollins was out for quite awhile, and once he made his full-time return, Chase Utley and Placido Polanco went out. Once those two key pieces return to action, the Phillies should have a much easier time in defeding their three-year reign as NL East champs and two-year reign as NL champions. However, another issue needs to be addressed. The backend of the starting rotation has had its problems in the first half of the year, and something needs to be done. The problem lies in the arm of Joe Blanton, and if consistency is not given from him, you're looking at Jamie Moyer as your No. 3 starter. With all due respect to Moyer, who has pitched incredibly this season, you cannot rely on him and Kyle Kendrick in a seven-game playoff series. Heck, relying on Cole Hamels has been a bit of a tense situation, as consistency has not been his strength since 2008. But, in short, once the injuries heal, all the Phillies have to do is pick up a quality, reliable starter, and they should be in the postseason, no questions asked. Well, except for, can they beat the Yankees if given the chance again...

5. Who will win the AL Central?
This three-horse race is shaping up to become a dandy. With the Chicago White Sox coming on strong in recent weeks, it has made the race much more than a runawau victory for the favored Minnesota Twins. My pick preseason was the Detroit Tigers, and they have been channelling their young talent in the best way possible. With both the White Sox and Tigers coming on strong and staying strong up to the All-Star break, it has left the Twins in third place and on the outside looking in. Not only that, but perennial MVP Joe Mauer is having arguably one of the worst years of his career. Now, a .293 average isn't anything to sneeze at, but when you're used to hitting in the mid-.300's, then you've got a problem. The Twins will most certainly make a return to the race once first baseman Justin Morneau returns from injury, and picking up another pitcher via trade before the deadline is not out of the cards for the Twinkies. I also foresee the White Sox falling off a bit, as they have a very good team, but just not one that will hold up as the weeks go on. I'm sticking to my guns and going with the Tigers. If they continue to play the way they've been playing up into the All-Star break, then they can and will win the AL Central in 2010. It'll be tight between Minnesota and Detroit come the end of September, but the Tiggers will take it.

4. Can Texas become a powerhouse?
Texas has gone from a constant in the basement of the AL West to a perennial championship contender in 2010. Staying with a strong young core and an upstart pitching staff has equalled success this season in Texas. The pitching has been the biggest surprise and has always been the biggest problem for the team. With incredible hitters such as Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, and Rafael Palmiero, the Rangers never had the pitching to compliment the pop in the bats. Thusly, the team struggled. Now, with Cliff Lee anchoring a young yet talented staff that includes Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter, along with a fireball closer in Neftali Feliz, the hurlers in Arlington are only going to get better. Combine that with the young hitting of Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Nelson Cruz, and the veteran leadership of Michael Young and Vladimir Guerrero, and you've got yourself some potential here. The divisional outlook makes things even better for Texas. The Angels are still good, but aging. The A's have young talent, but not at their level. The Mariners are at the bottom of the West, and will be for the foreseeable future. They're just not very good. Yes, things look good in the humid confines of the Ballpark in Arlington. How good? See: No. 1.

3. Which team will be left out of the AL East Race?
This may be the most interesting question of all. As long as the Rays stay competitive in the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry, then it makes every all the more fun to watch. Initially, one may think that the Yankees could be a lock to secure two of the three playoff spots that will all the likely come from the AL East. This is probably true. They, more than the other two teams, view missing the postseason as the ultimate failure. They also have the most talent in baseball, bar none. They won't allow an early end to their season. As for the second team, I've got to give the nod to the BoSox. The fact that Boston has stayed so competitive despite having their biggest stars on the disabled list for quite some time shows the potential they have once those players come back and contribute. Furthermore, after their hot start, the Rays have shown recently they are indeed human, and once they start to falter in the slightest, the Red Sox will pick up the pieces of their playoff puzzle and finally put it together. Chalk the Yanks to win the division, the Sox as the Wild Card, and the Rays on the outside looking in. Money wins, once again.

2. Can Miguel Cabrera win the Triple Crown?
Yes, this could actually happen. As of the break, the Tigers slugger ranked tied for third in home runs (22), tied for the lead in average (.346), and first in RBIs at 77. At this point, it's easy to speculate, but the last few times a player has come this close, as quickly as the hype came, it went. Cabrera is at the top of his game, so it isn't out of the question that this could happen. He is playing at a level that only Albert Pujols could match in 2010. Right at this very moment, he is that good. If he continues to hit as well as he did leading up to the All-Star break, then it's plausible. My gut instinct, however, says this will not happen on the sheer grounds that it is so difficult for any player to do in today's game. However, if anyone can do it at this stage, it's Miggy. Stay tuned.

1. The Bottom Line: Who will win the 2010 World Series?
It's an easy item to ponder, but there is no sure favorite coming into the final months of the season. The Yankees possess the best record in baseball, and being the defending champs, they have to be considered the favorites. However, don't count out the Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, or Rangers. Call me crazy, but I've got this strange feeling about those aforementioned Rangers. If they can get past their lack of playoff experience (sans Vladdy and Cliff Lee), then they could end up playing in their first ever World Series. They will have to get past the Yankees, most likely, but this seems like more of a potentially even matchup rather than a forgone conclusion. Remember, the Rangers do have a guy who manhandled the Bronx Bombers in last year's Series...Cliff Lee, anyone? Simply, a hunch folks, so if they do make it, you read it here first.

As for the NL, I'm looking at the Phillies. Yes, we did just ponder their odds of actually missing the postseason coming off of two straight trips to the Fall Classic, but they have all the tools to reclaim their throne once again. Also, if the Phils add another solid starter i.e. Dan Haren, then they have to be considered the odds-on favorite to repeat in the Senior Circuit. I'm going with the Fightins, because with their plethora of talent and abundance of playoff experience, there doesn't seem to be anyone close to them.

With a Texas/Philadelphia World Series, it does have the drama of C-Lee versus his former team, not to mention the powerhouse versus the young upstarts. That's all the drama you need. With that being said, give the series to the Phils. They have it. Just watch.

It all should be interesting come October. And remember, if it happens, it was said here first. If not, it was just a little off. I mean, things have never gotten that crazy and offline in baseball, have they?

One final, somber note: My condolences go out to the Steinbrenner family on their loss of longtime Yankees owner, George Steinbrenner. A true hands-on owner who knew what he wanted and what the fans wanted was lost today. He will be greatly missed. Fortunately for him, he was able to see his team take home the championship one more time. George Steinbrenner, Rest in Peace.

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